Six things to watch for in the seven months

October 14, 2007

Rob Christensen, Staff Writer

1. SHOW ME THE MONEY

The Republican primary is a story of haves and have-nots -- two millionaires versus a candidate of more modest means.

Bill Graham and Fred Smith have well-financed campaigns, in large part because they have freely spent their own money.

Graham spent $2.2 million from his own pocket to run a TV campaign urging the legislature to block a scheduled increase in the state gasoline tax. His campaign also hired about 50 college students to knock on doors across the state this summer. Dressed in orange T-shirts, they became known as Graham's Orange Army.

Smith paid about $2.5 million to buy his own campaign jet. He has paid to have more than 80,000 copies of his 168-page biography, "A Little Extra Effort," mailed across the state. He has already held barbecues in 35 counties and plans to make it to all 100 counties before the campaign is over.

Both Graham and Smith said that to be successful, they must raise a significant amount of contributions from supporters.

Bob Orr, who has no personal fortune, has been driving across the state in his pickup truck, which he has dubbed "Orr Force One."

To gain attention, he has invited reporters to have breakfast with him once a week. Orr said that one week, the only journalist who showed up was a photographer for The Daily Tar Heel, the student newspaper at UNC-Chapel Hill.

2. LEANING RIGHT

Graham and Smith are running as Jesse Helms-style conservatives, appealing to the GOP's base. They are for cutting taxes and reducing illegal immigration and against same-sex marriage.

At a barbecue dinner at Raleigh's Broughton High School last week, Smith said, for example, that illegal immigrants should be denied driver's licenses and other government benefits.

Their platforms are broader than that, of course, with Graham talking about reducing the school dropout rate and Smith talking about making government more efficient.

Orr is running as a more moderate conservative, in the mold of former Republican Govs. Jim Martin and Jim Holshouser. He is stressing economic issues, such as ending the multimillion-dollar taxpayer incentives for corporations that move to North Carolina or expand their operations here.

"In a governor's race, for a Republican to win -- look at Jim Holshouser and Jim Martin -- you have to be able to reach out to a broader segment of the voting public than our candidates have in most election cycles," Orr said.

Orr said he would do that in part by being the strongest advocate for public education among the Republican candidates. In one of his last acts as a state Supreme Court justice in 2004, Orr wrote the opinion upholding the landmark Leandro decision, which requires the state to spend more money to improve the quality of education in the state's poorest counties.

3. BACKGROUND

Few major policy differences have emerged between candidates. The candidates are focused on convincing voters that they are gubernatorial material and that they can end a 16-year streak of Democratic governors in North Carolina -- the longest in the South.

Smith, 65, of Clayton would be the first businessman to become governor since Luther Hodges (1954-1961). Smith says his diverse background as a home builder, lawyer, road builder, county commissioner, legislator and bank chairman makes him particularly qualified to be North Carolina's chief executive.

"Being governor is not an entry-level position for public service. I've had a lifetime of experiences, being in the Army, being a lawyer, being a farmer, being in business and being a senator. The governor manages a huge enterprise with a $37 billion budget. I don't think anybody else brings the experience to the table," Smith said. Graham, 46, of Salisbury says he has proven leadership. He says his anti-gas tax campaign pressured legislators to block an automatic gasoline tax increase from taking effect. As a result, Graham said, he has saved taxpayers $150 million.

"I think I've proven that I can rally people around an issue," he said. "I did that with the gas tax. I can bring together Republicans, independents and like-minded Democrats."

Orr, 61, of Raleigh says he is the only proven vote-getter in the primary, having won statewide office four times as an appellate judge. He has also been leading an institute that has sought to block the state lottery and taxpayer incentives for businesses.

4. POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES

Graham made his fortune as a trial lawyer, a profession often demonized in Republican circles.

Without naming Graham, Smith told supporters last week that one of the factors hurting health care was trial lawyers and warned against "a John Edwards wannabe."

"I find it very difficult to believe the Republican Party will embrace a trial lawyer who has similar characteristics to John Edwards and who I think is very green," said Marc Rotterman, a Smith campaign consultant.

Graham is attempting to portray Smith and Orr as Raleigh political insiders. If you want change, Graham argues, you need someone who is not part of the Raleigh crowd.

"The advantage is that he is not part of government," said Fetzer, Graham's consultant. "Both [Smith and Orr] have votes that will be problematic for them with the Republican base in the primary. If Graham can exploit that, he's the guy to beat."

Orr can come across as too cerebral and more concerned with constitutional and legal questions that might not have broad appeal.

None of the candidates has the polish of the GOP's stars, U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr.

5. THE LIDDY FACTOR

On the campaign trail, Graham sometimes introduces Dole at Republican dinners. He obviously hopes that some of the Dole magic will rub off on him.

Both are from Salisbury, and Graham helped raise money for Dole during her 2002 Senate campaign. They also share political consultants.

But both campaigns say that despite appearances, Dole will remain neutral in the gubernatorial primary.

6. THE TEAMS

The Republican primary looks like a reunion of Jesse Helms' old organization.

Graham has hired two Helms veterans, Mark Stephens and Fetzer, to run his campaign. Stephens also ran Dole's 2002 campaign and last year was executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, of which Dole was chairwoman. Graham has also hired Raleigh consultant Dee Stewart, who helped elect U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry and state Rep. Joe Boylan of Moore County, who ousted former House Speaker Richard Morgan last year.

Graham's media consultant is Fred Davis, a Hollywood-based consultant who did ads for President Bush's re-election campaign, for Dole in 2002, and for Patrick Ballantine, the Republican candidate for governor in 2004. Until recently, he worked for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

Graham's pollster is John McLaughlin, who was a pollster for Helms. He has worked for such candidates as onetime presidential hopeful Steve Forbes, former House Speaker Dennis Hastert and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Smith's chief of staff is Jonathan Hill, a veteran of the Helms organization. Smith's campaign consultants include Karen Rotterman, who has worked for Reagan, Helms, U.S. Rep. Walter Jones and others. His media consultant is Rick Reed, who is best known for producing the Swift Boat ads against Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry. He has worked for many other candidates, including former Virginia Gov. George Allen and former Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist.

Smith's pollster is Whit Ayers, who has handled campaigns for Frist, U.S. Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, and others.

Orr listens to free advice.